Interactive forecast tool
          
Charitable Giving Impact Model
          
Adjust growth and tax assumptions to estimate how individual charitable giving changes between a no-tax-change baseline and a 2026 tax-law scenario. The default setup is a communication-focused scenario model rather than a full IRS microsimulation.
        

        

          Scenario presets
          

            Base case
            Optimistic
            Recession
            High-donor pullback
            Custom
          
        
        

          

            

              
Assumptions

              

                

                  
                    2022 aggregate AGI ?
                    
                  
                  
                  
In trillions of dollars.
                
                

                  
                    2022 individual giving ?
                    
                  
                  
                  
In billions of dollars.
                
              

              

                

                  
                    Nominal income growth, 2022 to 2026 ?
                    
                  
                  
                  
Used to project total AGI into 2026.
                
                

                  
                    Wealth-effect tailwind ?
                    
                  
                  
                  
This affects the no-tax-change giving baseline.
                
                

                  
                    Giving elasticity to income ?
                    
                  
                  
                  
Controls how much of income growth flows through to giving.
                
              

              

                

                  Advanced assumptions
                  Expand
                
                

                  
Income mix
                  

                    
                      High-income share of 2026 AGI ?
                      
                    
                    
                    
Used to split the giving baseline between high-income and other households.
                  
                  

                    
                      High-income giving intensity multiplier ?
                      
                    
                    
                    
Higher values concentrate more giving among donors most exposed to itemized deduction changes.
                  

                  
Policy response
                  

                    
                      Policy-effect pass-through ?
                      
                    
                    
                    
This scales the tax-law effects up or down.
                  
                  

                    
                      Non-itemizer take-up rate ?
                      
                    
                    
                    
This scales only the positive non-itemizer effect.
                  
                  

                    
                      High-income donor sensitivity ?
                      
                    
                    
                    
This scales the floor and cap effects.
                  
                
              

              

                

                  
                    Inflation used to roll policy effects into 2026 ?
                    
                  
                  
                  
Applied to the 2025-dollar policy estimates.
                
              

              

                

                  
                    New non-itemizer deduction effect ?
                    
                  
                  
                  
Positive effect in 2025 dollars, billions.
                
                

                  
                    0.5% itemizer floor effect ?
                    
                  
                  
                  
Negative effect in 2025 dollars, billions.
                
                

                  
                    35% cap effect for top-bracket donors ?
                    
                  
                  
                  
Negative effect in 2025 dollars, billions.
                
              

              

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2026 AGI
                  

                  

                
                

                  
2026 giving, no tax change
                  

                  

                
                

                  
2026 giving, with new law
                  

                  
Baseline plus modeled tax-law effects
                
                

                  
Net tax-law effect
                  

                  

                
              

              

                

                  

                    
Component
                    
2026 effect
                  
                
                

                  

                    
Non-itemizer deduction
                    

                  
                  

                    
0.5% floor for itemizers
                    

                  
                  

                    
35% cap for top-bracket itemizers
                    

                  
                  

                    
Net effect
                    

                  
                
              

              
Interpretation helpers
              

                

                  

                    
Measure
                    
Estimate
                  
                
                

                  

                    
Implied baseline giving rate
                    

                  
                  

                    
High-income share of baseline giving
                    

                  
                  

                    
Modeled high-income giving dollars
                    

                  
                  

                    
Modeled other-household giving dollars
                    

                  
                
              

              
Math check: the baseline is now computed as 2022 giving × (1 + income growth × giving elasticity) × (1 + wealth-effect tailwind). Tax effects are inflated to 2026 and then scaled by the advanced behavioral settings. This remains a scenario tool, not a tax-return microsimulation.